Colorado River, final Countdown
Colorado River Negotiators Are Nearly Out of Time and Snowpack
With another federal deadline only weeks away and record-low snowfall further drying out the watershed, states have begun talking about whether they are prepared for litigation.
A River in Crisis
Time and water are running low on the Colorado River. Amid one of the driest winters on record, representatives from seven Western states have less than two weeks to meet an already-delayed federal deadline to find a new way to share the dwindling Colorado River—one that recognizes the megadrought and overconsumption plaguing the basin.
The current guidelines for implementing drought contingencies expire later this year, but as the February 14 deadline looms, basin states—particularly Arizona and Colorado—have begun discussing the prospect of settling their disputes in court, suggesting that a deal is far from guaranteed.
"The only real failure for me, when I look in that mirror, is if I give away the state of Arizona's water supply for the next several generations. That ain't gonna happen." — Tom Buschatzke, Director, Arizona Department of Water Resources
Record-Low Snowpack
Those who hoped for a repeat of the winter of 2022-2023, when heavy snowfall across the West temporarily and partially replenished critical reservoirs, are out of luck. With 2026's winter about halfway over, it would take record amounts of snowfall for the Colorado River basin to climb back to merely average snowpack levels.
The Colorado River basin spans parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming, and serves over 40 million people across the seven states, 30 tribes, and Mexico. Nearly all of its watersheds have experienced below-average or well below-average precipitation since October, when the new water year began.
Colorado River Basin Snowpack Trends
Historical comparison showing current water year snowpack vs. recent years (% of median)
⚠️ Critical Infrastructure at Risk
If water levels at Lake Powell dip below "minimum power pool" for an extended period, the Bureau of Reclamation would have to bypass the hydroelectric turbines, cutting power to over a million people in the Southwest—or reduce water releases to Arizona, California, and Nevada, which would be a devastating blow to the region's economy.
The Stakes: Low Water, High Pressure
Low snowpack will result in less water melting into reservoirs across the basin come spring and summer. With less water stored, the Bureau of Reclamation's options for managing federal infrastructure along the river—including Lakes Powell and Mead, the largest reservoirs in the nation—will be severely constrained.
A September 2025 report from a consortium of hydrologists found that if the current winter was similar to last year's, Colorado River users would overdraw the river by 3.6 million acre-feet, requiring "immediate and substantial" reductions in water use across the basin to prevent a total collapse of the system.
Water Supply vs. Demand Gap
Projected annual overdraw scenarios under different hydrological conditions (million acre-feet)
Litigation Looms
A resolution in the courts is looking increasingly likely. During her state of the state address, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs said the "Upper Basin states, led by Colorado, have chosen to dig in their heels instead of acknowledging reality" during negotiations.
Arizona has established a $1 million legal fund in anticipation of litigation, with bipartisan legislation introduced to add another $1 million. Meanwhile, Colorado's lead negotiator assured lawmakers: "We are gonna have the best lawyer. We will be ready."
📋 The Legal Battleground: Article III(d)
Any lawsuit would likely focus on the 1922 Colorado River Compact's Article III(d), which states the Upper Basin "will not cause the flow of the river at Lee's Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre-feet for any period of ten consecutive years." This language has never been interpreted by a court.
What Irrigation Districts Need to Know
For water managers across the Western states, the implications are significant. The Bureau of Reclamation has released a range of alternatives outlining how it would manage the system if no deal is reached by February 14. Under the outlined federal proposals, the vast majority of cuts would affect Arizona, which relies heavily on the river but holds junior water rights.
Arizona has already had a third of its Colorado River water rights cut. The Lower Basin has volunteered to cut 1.5 million acre-feet—the amount of water lost to transpiration and evaporation annually—and asked that the Upper Basin share in cuts beyond that amount.
Water Allocation by State
Annual Colorado River entitlements under current compact (million acre-feet)
Key Takeaways for Water Operators
- February 14, 2026 deadline: States must reach agreement or face federal intervention and likely litigation
- Record-low snowpack: 2026 winter precipitation is tracking well below average across nearly all Colorado River sub-basins
- 3.6 million acre-foot potential overdraw: Without immediate cuts, the system faces potential collapse
- Arizona most vulnerable: Junior water rights mean the state faces the largest potential cuts under federal proposals
- Infrastructure at risk: Lake Powell could drop below minimum power pool as early as summer 2026
- Litigation uncertainty: Court cases could take years, extending planning uncertainty for cities, tribes, and farmers
